Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market Now? Here’s What On-Chain Data Suggests

Bitcoin has gone through a major crash recently, but has the asset yet breached the historical bear market boundary? Here’s what on-chain data says.

Bitcoin Is Currently Under Realized Price Of New Whales

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed what the Realized Price of different key groups in the Bitcoin market is looking like right now.

The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition price that the investors of a given group currently share.

When the asset’s spot price is above this metric, it means the cohort as a whole can be considered to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the average group member is holding a net loss.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for some major cohorts on the Bitcoin network:

The first Bitcoin cohort listed here is the “New Whales,” which include the large investors (more than 1,000 BTC in holdings) who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The likes of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other custody wallets would be included in this category.

This group currently has a Realized Price of $65,000, meaning that these whales would be in notable losses after the latest cryptocurrency crash.

The next group, the Binance Traders, has a cost basis of $55,000, around where the asset’s spot price is trading. Thus, these investors would currently be just breaking even on their investments.

Bitcoin still holds a distance above the Realized Price of the third group, the Miner Whales, at $45,000. As the CryptoQuant founder has pointed out, BTC dipping below this level has historically confirmed a bear market for the coin.

From the chart, it’s visible that the asset last saw major breaches of the level back in November 2018 and May 2022. It also saw a temporary break during the COVID crash in March 2020.

As the latest crash has been unable to take Bitcoin below this cost basis of the mining companies, it’s possible that a transition towards a bear market hasn’t happened yet.

The last cohort in the chart is the Long-Term Holder Whales, which includes the whales that have been holding for more than 155 days. The Realized Price of this group has never been breached in the coin’s entire history and currently trades around $22,000.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has gone up 7% to reclaim the $55,000 mark.