PlanB speculates that BTC price fall doesn’t mean the end
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has declined over the past day or so, falling from highs above $60,000 to below $50,000. That, however, does not necessarily mean the asset’s bull run is over, according to a well-known crypto analyst, PlanB.
“Nothing goes up in a straight line,” PlanB said in a Tweet on Friday.
“#Bitcoin has gone up 6 months in a row, until this month. This looks like the mid-way dip that we also saw in 2013 and 2017.”
PlanB is known in the crypto industry for his Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow, or S2F, model. The model essentially projects Bitcoin’s price along an upward path in tandem with its halvings and increasing scarcity. He has also constructed a number of other models around the concept, factoring in different aspects.
Over the past several months, Bitcoin has dwarfed its 2017 all-time price high, hitting just shy of $65,000 on April 14, according to TradingView data. In the following days, BTC proceeded to fall down near $47,500 by April 23 — roughly a 26% decline. The move, however, is not out of line with previous Bitcoin bull cycles, according to PlanB’s tweet.
PlanB’s tweet on Friday also included a chart of Bitcoin’s price action during the bull markets that ensued following each of its previous halvings. Halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Bull markets followed in 2013, 2017 and 2020/2021.
Nothing goes up in a straight line. #bitcoin has gone up 6 months in a row, until this month. This looks like the mid-way dip that we also saw in 2013 and 2017. pic.twitter.com/uaCn9GCHGI
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 23, 2021
Previous bull runs have sustained sizable pullbacks in price amid the backdrop of a greater macro bull cycle. Based on BraveNewCoin’s BLX chart on TradingView, during the bull run of 2013, after notable upside price action, Bitcoin suffered a crash of about 75% between April and July 2013. After that drop, Bitcoin went on to post significant gains before 2014 hit.
In September of 2017, Bitcoin suffered a drop of roughly 40% following significant gains, but went on to hit new highs in subsequent months before falling into a bear market the year after.