XRP lawsuit Update: Ripple’s $770M Penalty Could Drop to $38.5M, What Next with XRP Price? 

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How much money does the SEC want Ripple to pay? The SEC might find it challenging to force Ripple to pay a $770 million penalty for institutional sales if investors haven’t been adversely impacted. In a past LBRY case the SEC asked for $23 million but only got $130,000. 

Ripple Will Pay Way Lesser Than Projected, Says Analyst

As per Ripple’s attorney John Deaton, the SEC is pushing for a $770m penalty from the company over the settlement of the unregistered securities sale allegations in the ongoing SEC-Ripple legal conflict which could eventually reduce.

Based on the SEC’s previous statements that a significant portion of Ripple’s XRP sales could be 95% outside the U.S., Deaton speculates that about $731.5 million could be deducted from the proposed $770 million fine.

This would leave Ripple with a potential penalty of only $38.5 million. Deaton also believes that Ripple will seek to deduct legitimate business expenses from any penalties imposed.

Furthermore, Deaton contends that if Ripple ends up paying $20 million or less, it would represent a 99.9% legal victory for the company. He argues that the court’s ruling in favor of Ripple was more like a 90-10 outcome rather than a 50-50 victory, as some have suggested.

Hogan’s most recent take

Attorney Jeremy Hogan also weighs in on potential arguments Ripple might use during the remedies briefing. Hogan points to the SEC v. Liu case, which emphasized that disgorgement should be “fair” and based on the violator’s net profits rather than gross. Accordingly, Ripple is expected to deduct its legitimate business expenses from any potential penalties. Hogan also notes that sales outside the SEC’s U.S. jurisdiction may be excluded from the total sum.

What’s Coming Next? 

Both parties will see the final faceoff on November 9, allowing them to present their respective positions on the appropriate fine for Ripple’s XRP sales to institutional clients. Hogan also highlights the recent Second Circuit ruling, emphasizing that disgorgement should compensate victims who have suffered financial losses, which could factor into the upcoming remedies briefing. 

XRP Price Impact

Despite SEC’s penalty showdown, XRP experienced an impressive 27% surge over the past week, coinciding with Ripple’s pivotal Swell conference in Dubai, fueling speculation of a transformative IPO announcement.

Within the last 24 hours, XRP made a bullish move, breaking through a three-month high at $0.68. Additionally, trading volume for XRP saw a significant increase, reaching $2.495 billion within a day, marking a remarkable 162.41% rise from the previous day’s value. 

Notably, @WKahneman predicts that the SWELL event in Dubai on Nov 8-9 could disclose an IPO, VARA license, CBDC negotiations, stablecoin and tokenization work, and user growth this year. After a quiet year, this event may reveal Ripple’s changing identity, especially if it still perceives itself as a payment company.