Bitcoin Price Prediction: Historic trends indicate links between bear markets and halving; Will it be $50k or $100k for king coin?

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Analyst Josh of Crypto World has explained his long-term price predictions for the current crypto bull cycle, covering several critical points. He discussed the current stage of the cycle, important signals to identify the bull market top, and where we might see the bull market peak. 

Starting with the monthly Bitcoin chart, he said that each candle represents a month of price action, spanning over a decade of Bitcoin’s history. This chart clearly shows multiple bull and bear cycles, closely linked to Bitcoin halvings. 

These halvings, which reduce the new supply of Bitcoin, have historically triggered significant bull markets due to decreased sell pressure from miners and increased scarcity. The bull markets typically start around a year before each halving and last for approximately three years, followed by a one-year bear market.

Historical Halving Cycles

First Halving (November 2012): Bull market until late 2013, followed by a bear market through 2014 and early 2015.

Second Halving (July 2016): Continued bull market until the end of 2017, then a bear market throughout 2018.

Third Halving (May 2020): Bull market into 2021, with the bear market starting in 2022.

Fourth Halving (April 2023): Expected to continue the bull market for about a year, potentially starting the next bear market around mid to late 2025.

Weekly Bitcoin Chart 

Super Trend Indicator: This indicator, which stays green during bull markets and red during bear markets, currently suggests the bull trend is intact. The crucial level to watch is $52,000; a weekly close below this would signal a bearish reversal.

Bull Market Continuation: Multiple charts and indicators point to the current bull market likely continuing for about another year, based on historical patterns. Using Fibonacci extension levels from previous bull market tops to bear market bottoms, the analyst has developed a model predicting bull market tops.

This model has accurately predicted previous bull market tops by measuring extensions (e.g., 350%, 260%, and 200%) of the retracement levels. Applying the same method, the model predicts a potential top around $120,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle, with some flexibility (e.g., $110,000 to $140,000).