Altcoin Season Index at 18: Major Coins Face Challenges as Bitcoin Season Emerges

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The total market cap of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has faced significant resistance, contributing to the recent declines. However, according to several analysts, despite short-term challenges, macro trends suggest that if the market follows a regular structural pattern, altcoins could see  growth moving forward.

The Altseason Index and Bitcoin dominance trends are essential tools for understanding market movements. Sharp drops in Bitcoin’s dominance often indicate the start of altseason. However, the altcoin season index recently hit 18, indicating that we are still in the accumulation zone. 

Providing a bit of context, to know if we’re in altseason, one can look at how altcoins perform relative to Bitcoin. The most common way to track this is by examining Bitcoin’s dominance; sharp drops in dominance signal an altseason. 

To make this more practical, there’s an indicator called the Altseason Index, created by blockchaincenter.net. This index evaluates the price change of the 50 largest coins by market cap. If 75% of these coins have outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day period, it means we are in an altseason. The Altcoin Season Index indicates that altcoin season may have already reached a local peak, with the market returning to Bitcoin season in the short term. 

The same calculation is done for one-month and one-year periods. The scale ranges from zero to one hundred, where 100% means all the top 50 coins are performing better than Bitcoin. Currently, we can see that we are not even approaching an altseason. Currently, the level is at 18, clearly indicating we’re not in altseason yet. However, historic trends suggest that it has dropped below 10 before a bull run. In November 2023, the index hit 4.