Three Reasons Why the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Could Hit a New ATH Before the End of 2024
The first half of 2024 was more than successful for Bitcoin (BTC), whose price reached an all-time high of over $73,500 in mid-March. It currently trades for an increase of around 115% on a yearly scale.
In the following lines, we will touch upon some essential factors and upcoming events that could push BTC to a new price peak before the end of the year.
The US Presidential Elections
The result of the voting (scheduled for November this year) could trigger enhanced volatility for the leading digital asset. The main battle will be between the current president and candidate from the Democratic party – Joe Biden – and the Republican nominee – Donald Trump.
The latter has recently presented himself as the right choice for pro-crypto voters, promising to let the industry thrive. He also pledged to increase America’s BTC mining efforts and opposed the idea of launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
Latest polls suggest that he currently has the upper hand, collecting 42.3% of the total votes. Biden is trailing behind with an estimated support of 40.3%.
It is worth mentioning that Trump recently survived an assassination attempt during a public speech in Pennsylvania. He was shot at by a 20-year-old gunman, but fortunately, the bullet only scrapped his ear, while the medics who took care of him assured his life was out of danger. BTC and the entire crypto sector reacted positively to the news of his survival, with the global market cap briefly rising above $2.5 trillion.
That said, it will be interesting to see how his possible election as America’s 47th president will affect Bitcoin’s price.
The Fed’s Actions
The US central bank launched an aggressive anti-inflationary regime after the COVID-19 pandemic shocked the world. Besides the numerous victims, the health disaster resulted in vacated jobs, isolation, uncertainty, financial instability, and many other setbacks.
To support the crippled economy, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, lifting the benchmark 11 consecutive times between March 2022 and July 2023. Currently, the level stands at 5.25%-5.50%, with numerous industry participants expecting a pivot in the following months.
Previously, it was taught that the Fed would wait until inflation cools off to the healthy zone of 2% before lowering interest rates. Earlier this week, Chairman Powell said the bank may pivot earlier than expected:
“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell stated.
The Fed’s next FOMC meetings are set for July 31 and September 18. Some sources claim an interest rate cut after the second meeting is increasingly likely.
Lowering the benchmark will make money borrowing cheaper, potentially increasing the interest in risk-on assets such as BTC. In turn, the potential flow of fresh capital might trigger a further rally.
The Halving
Last but not least, we will focus on the Bitcoin halving, which took place in April of this year. The event occurs approximately every four years and slashes in half the daily issuance of the leading digital asset.
Historically, it has been a precursor of a major resurgence for BTC and the entire crypto market. At the time of the halving, the asset was worth around $64,000, briefly spiking above $71,000 a month later.
However, some analysts have recently reminded that the price of BTC peaked a year (and even more) after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. This means that the asset is yet to reach new milestones (assuming it mirrors it performance from the past).
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