Bitcoin Bull Run Alert: PlanB Reveals How Lummis and Trump’s Actions Could Drive Prices
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At the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed creating a Bitcoin reserve to protect the US dollar from rising national debt. Meanwhile, Donald Trump promised that if re-elected, the US would keep its seized Bitcoin as an investment rather than selling it. PlanB sees these moves as signs that Bitcoin is now being adopted by nations, supported by his Stock-to-Flow model showing the asset’s increasing scarcity.
In August 2024, renowned crypto analyst PlanB revisited his Bitcoin market analysis with fresh insights and updated charts.
Stock-to-Flow Model
PlanB revisits his famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which uses a logarithmic scale to track Bitcoin’s price relative to its stock-to-flow ratio. The model shows significant price jumps following each halving event, though recent cycles, like the one from 2020-2024, have not met previous expectations. Consequently, he does not foresee any further Bitcoin miner capitulation, which could alleviate selling pressure on BTC prices.
Despite some misconceptions about the model’s failure to hit the $100,000 mark in 2021, PlanB emphasizes that it remains useful for long-term predictions, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $1 million in the next cycle.
Current Market Cycle
Currently, Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bull market, as indicated by the red phase. Historically, transitions between bull and bear markets can be volatile, with periods of yellow signaling potential market tops or transitions. PlanB notes the need for patience and observation to confirm whether the current bull market will continue or reverse.
The RSI chart shows Bitcoin’s RSI at 66, which is high but typical for Bitcoin’s historical trend. PlanB suggests that Bitcoin could experience further price increases, potentially pushing RSI above 80, in line with previous bull markets.
Technically Bear Market is Over!
The 200-week moving average, a critical long-term indicator, indicates that Bitcoin may have already weathered the worst of its recent bear market. On-chain metrics support this positive outlook, with Bitcoin’s current price exceeding its two-year realized price—a sign of emerging bullish sentiment.
Moreover, with 92% of Bitcoin holders currently in profit, market sentiment remains strong and optimistic. This widespread profitability often correlates with a more resilient and positive market environment.
Miner Revenue Trends
PlanB also introduces a new chart focused on miner revenue trends. After a period of decline, recent data shows a recovery in miner revenue. This uptick could be an early indicator of the market transitioning into the next bullish phase, as increased revenue for miners often precedes larger price movements.
Future Projections
With the U.S. elections approaching, further volatility in BTC prices is expected. PlanB is not alone in setting high price targets; Spot-on-Chain has also predicted that BTC will hit $100,000 by the end of the year and $150,000 by the first half of 2025. At present BTC is trading at $64,008.59.
