How does Bitcoin perform historically after its worst day of the year?
Quick Take
On Aug. 5, Bitcoin experienced its worst-performing day of the year, with a peak-to-trough drop of approximately 16%.
However, it has already rebounded by roughly 10% from the lows, with the day yet to close. Historically, Bitcoin’s volatility has led to similar drastic declines. Analyzing Bitcoin’s returns following its worst daily performance of the year reveals some remarkable recoveries.f
On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin saw a steep decline of 39.63%, yet the subsequent recovery was notable, with a 103.09% return over three months and a 108.45% return over six months. Another significant drop occurred on April 11, 2013, when Bitcoin fell 22.84%, but again demonstrated resilience with a 42.10% return within a month.
However, not all recoveries were as robust; for instance, after a 20.05% drop on June 11, 2011, Bitcoin’s six-month return plummeted by 79.60%.
The data shows that while Bitcoin often recovers after significant drops, the extent and speed of recovery can vary greatly.
On Sept. 14, 2017, a drop of 15.37% was followed by an impressive three-month return of 409.89% and a six-month return of 183.71%. In contrast, the drop on Feb. 5, 2018, resulted in a modest six-month return of just 2.04%.
| Date | Price (USD) | % Drop That Day | 1 Week Return (%) | 1 Month Return (%) | 3 Months Return (%) | 6 Months Return (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-07-22 | $0.06 | -23.41% | 23.69% | 18.69% | 76.96% | 459.46% |
| 2011-06-11 | $14.65 | -20.05% | 15.19% | -3.00% | -65.49% | -79.60% |
| 2012-08-19 | $7.92 | -11.58% | 33.28% | 55.23% | 48.84% | 240.89% |
| 2013-04-11 | $81.20 | -22.84% | 34.30% | 42.10% | 5.94% | 53.14% |
| 2014-03-27 | $472.14 | -16.00% | -4.79% | -2.35% | 18.71% | -6.93% |
| 2015-01-14 | $172.21 | -23.65% | 32.03% | 37.51% | 27.40% | 70.04% |
| 2016-01-15 | $362.43 | -10.71% | 5.76% | 12.18% | 17.47% | 80.78% |
| 2017-09-14 | $3240.90 | -15.37% | 11.63% | 79.16% | 409.89% | 183.71% |
| 2018-02-05 | $6891.93 | -21.04% | 28.89% | 44.60% | 39.97% | 2.04% |
| 2019-06-27 | $11151.37 | -10.36% | 0.55% | -15.19% | -23.89% | -34.45% |
| 2020-03-12 | $4860.35 | -39.63% | 27.42% | 40.99% | 103.09% | 108.45% |
| 2021-05-19 | $37151.95 | -13.04% | 5.69% | -3.87% | 20.30% | 71.57% |
| 2022-05-19 | $22499.38 | -15.16% | -8.25% | -10.23% | -3.26% | -23.89% |
| 2023-08-17 | $26641.15 | -7.36% | -1.86% | -0.30% | 42.50% | 86.77% |
Source: Glassnode
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