Bettors take profits causing US election odds to plummet on Polymarket
The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is seeing significant activity as traders speculate on the 2024 US presidential election outcomes between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The total volume has now reached $638,887,107, with $72 million for Harris and $80 million for Trump.
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Polymarket allows users to buy and sell positions on various outcomes, enabling them to profit from market fluctuations even before the final resolution of events. The environment reflects real-time sentiment shifts akin to the volatility seen in the stock or crypto market dynamics.
Recent trading data highlights the strategic maneuvers of Polymarket participants. Over the weekend, “Yes” votes for Kamala Harris were bought at an average price of $0.512, with a total purchase value of approximately $339,935.74, yielding a total sale value of $646,462.54.
In contrast, “No” votes for Harris were bought at an average price of $0.507 and sold at $0.480, with respective total values of $167,462.34 and $167,953.60.
For Donald Trump, “Yes” votes were acquired at an average price of $0.487, with a total purchase value of $941,106.56. Meanwhile, “No” votes for Trump were bought at $0.507 with a total value of $290,596.54.
| Candidate | Vote Type | Total Value Bought | Total Value Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Yes Votes | $339,935.74 | $646,462.54 |
| Kamala Harris | No Votes | $167,462.34 | $167,953.60 |
| Donald Trump | Yes Votes | $941,106.56 | $269,387.52 |
| Donald Trump | No Votes | $290,596.54 | $36,000.00 |
Notably, Harris has over $71 million in total positions placed below $0.50, with shares available for as little as $0.21 just one month ago. Those selling Harris positions this weekend appear to be longer-term holds taking profit on her surge since Biden dropped out of the race. Similarly, Trump’s odds had fallen to his lowest level since May, as bettors seem to be ‘buying the dip’ on Trump.
One user alone sold $207,255 worth of Harris for $0.53 after starting to buy positions around $0.48. The user has moved their positions to Trump with a portfolio of $145,000, a profit of $194,000, and a volume of $4.5 million across 137 markets.
The odds on Polymarket have shifted due to this profit-taking and discount purchases, illustrating the fluid nature of Polymarket, where market forces can sway the perceived likelihood of outcomes. Currently, Harris leads Trump with odds of 51 to 47, a change from 54 to 44 just days prior. The only other potential with greater than a 1% chance at present is Michele Obama, with $55,848,003 wagered.
Polymarket’s live prediction model contrasts with traditional betting companies, where odds are often more static and influenced by bookkeepers. The platform’s real-time adjustments reflect public sentiment and market confidence more actively. Harris has seen a surge in support, leading Trump in crucial battleground states like Arizona and North Carolina while narrowing his lead in Georgia and Nevada. This evolving landscape is mirrored in the trading patterns on Polymarket as traders react to polling data and other influencing factors.
Polymarket offers a unique and interactive way for users to engage with election predictions, allowing them to capitalize on market movements and sentiment shifts. This approach provides insights into public opinion and illustrates the potential for profit in a market that operates similarly to financial trading platforms.
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