Is Ethereum Headed For Trouble? Analyst Warns Of Surging Exchange Reserves

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been under significant pressure in recent weeks. As its price continues to fluctuate, analysts have been observing its market signals to determine whether the current phase is one of accumulation or distribution.

According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Shayan, the Ethereum exchange reserve metric, which tracks the amount of ETH held in exchange wallets, is providing insights into this question.

What Does The Ethereum Exchange Reserve Currently Signals?

Shayan disclosed in the analysis shared in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform that the Ethereum exchange reserve metric has shown a notable upward trend between June and August, indicating a distribution phase that has contributed to the ongoing bearish trend.

This metric is particularly noteworthy given that coins held on exchanges are often considered ready for sale, which can lead to increased selling pressure.

According to Shayan, the recent “death cross” on Ethereum’s price chart, where the 100-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, has raised further concerns.

Following this technical signal, the exchange reserve metric has risen sharply, suggesting that another distribution phase may be unfolding.

The analyst noted that this increase in reserves on exchanges could point to a potential decrease in demand for Ethereum, which might lead to further price declines. However, Shayan noted that the state of the futures market, a critical factor in price determination, must also be analyzed before making “definitive conclusions.”

Exchange Reserves Signal New Distribution Phase Amidst Death Cross Concerns

“Ethereum reserves on exchanges continue to grow, the likelihood of a decrease in demand—and consequently, a further price decline—also increases.” – By @ShayanBTC7

Link https://t.co/HKaeDBsss3 pic.twitter.com/K6mMDmtnBH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 2, 2024

Ethereum’s Price Action and Market Sentiment

Despite the concerning signals from the exchange reserve metric, Ethereum has managed to stage a modest recovery over the past day.

The cryptocurrency has seen a 2.2% increase, bringing its current trading price to $2,515 at the time of writing. However, this uptick does little to offset the 7% decline Ethereum has experienced over the past week.

Renowned crypto analyst CrediBull, commenting on Ethereum’s recent price action, emphasized that the situation is still evolving. He noted:

Nothing has really changed on ETH here. We went a bit lower, but OI has simply decreased even more, funding is negative, and we are simply back at our local lows. 

CrediBull suggests that Ethereum might sweep the lows into local demand before forming a deviation and potentially moving higher.

He also warned against overreacting to short-term volatility, stressing the importance of managing risk and sticking to plan if the fundamental market conditions haven’t significantly changed.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView