11% Of Bitcoin Supply In Coinbase’s Hands: Analyzing The Potential Risks

A recent report by The Defiant reveals that Coinbase holds a substantial 11% of the total Bitcoin supply, amounting to approximately 2.275 million BTC worth around $129 billion. 

As the fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange globally, Coinbase commands significant trading volume—$1.5 billion in 24-hour transactions and 34 million monthly users—and acts as a custodian for major corporations, including BlackRock, Tesla, and MicroStrategy.

However, this substantial concentration of Bitcoin within a single entity has raised important questions about the potential risks associated with such centralization. 

The Fallout Of A Potential Coinbase Disaster

Per the report, critics argue that a significant concentration of assets can lead to systemic risks, particularly if the exchange were to face security issues, legal pressures, or other crises. 

Jameson Lopp, CTO of multi-sig custodian Casa, points out that while Coinbase is considered more stable than many exchanges, it remains vulnerable to pressures from nation-states and could face scenarios akin to the US government’s historical seizure of gold during the 1930s.

The implications of a Coinbase disaster—such as a hack resulting in the loss of customer funds—could reverberate throughout the cryptocurrency market. Such an event would not only undermine public confidence in crypto but could also lead to a significant downturn in market prices, potentially triggering a prolonged bear market. 

The report notes that the fear is compounded by the fact that more than 73 million Americans hold accounts on the platform, meaning the fallout could affect a vast number of retail investors.

Could A Bitcoin Fork Be On The Horizon? 

While some experts, like Steven Lubka from Swan Private, believe a catastrophic loss is unlikely due to Coinbase’s “advanced security measures,” the risk of custodial centralization remains a concern. 

The idea of a Bitcoin fork to recover lost assets—similar to the Ethereum situation following the DAO hack in 2016—has been suggested. However, experts believe that while influential stakeholders might push for a rollback to “recover” their funds, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin’s network would likely reject such proposals.

Lisa Neigut, founder of Base58, explains that Bitcoin’s unique Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) model creates a buffer against centralized risks. In this model, if a bug affects a particular entity’s keys, it only impacts that entity, preserving the overall integrity of the network. 

This separation of concerns is crucial for maintaining the health of the Bitcoin protocol, especially in the face of potential centralization threats. Yet, concerns persist about how large custodians like Coinbase could influence the broader ecosystem. 

Armin Sabouri, CTO of Botanix Labs, warns that significant holders could coerce the community by threatening to dump their assets, potentially crashing the market price and forcing the network to ossify in response to their demands. This scenario poses a direct challenge to Bitcoin’s foundational ethos of decentralization.

In sum, the sense of risk regarding the increased amount of holdings that the exchange poses remains a topic for debate in the future of the market. In addition, with the increased amount of methods to potentially hack or attempt to hack exchanges like Coinbase, it would be imperative to monitor and prevent these types of scenarios to avoid another Mt. Gox catastrophe.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $57,650, having failed to break above the $58,000 resistance level for two days in a row.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com