Trump’s Election Odds Soar to 67% After Massive $2M Polymarket Bet
Things are turning strange on Polymarket. With the U.S. election just days away, several mysterious whales have popped up on the blockchain prediction market Polymarket. They’re placing bets that are swaying the odds on the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris race.
As it stands, Donald Trump has a 67% chance to win the election and is only four more percentage points away from breaking his highs just before Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Here’s who the whales are betting on to win this election season.
The Whale Making Waves on Polymarket
Trump’s odds on platforms like Polymarket have shot up to a dizzying 67%, thanks to the enigmatic whale “zxgngl.” This deep-pocketed player has poured more than $7.5 million in USDC into bets backing Trump, shaking up the market landscape and sparking widespread intrigue.
Lookonchain, an on-chain intelligence firm, noted this week, “Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes’ shares on Donald Trump winning the US election.”
"zxgngl": opened this month, only bets on one market, seems to execute primarily via continuous TWAP (or similar algo) to buy Trump/YES
"Theo4": executes a combo of TWAP + sharp bets, also joins Oct 2024 pic.twitter.com/zISypqq9fr— Lily (@nope_its_lily) October 28, 2024
Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket and Polkamarket offer a unique glimpse into the collective sentiment of investors, potentially providing more accurate forecasts than conventional polls.
Billionaire Elon Musk has pointed out the potential of these markets to offer realistic predictions, as they aggregate data from diverse participants, each placing financial stakes in the outcomes.
Implications for Prediction Markets
Polymarket has shot to the top as the go-to hub for political odds, with Trump’s chances taking a dramatic turn upward at the start of October. The platform’s trading volume has skyrocketed, fueled by U.S. election predictions that spiked prediction market activity by 565% in just the third quarter. This surge highlights an ever-growing trust in blockchain tech to read the political pulse.
As we’ve argued on 99Bitcoins for years, blockchain can make elections fairer and more transparent by eliminating third-party influence.
This will be the first election where we find out if a blockchain-based prediction market can be accurate or BS. In other words, how much of the site is manipulation compared to real legitimate whales?
With the U.S. presidential election drawing near, these enigmatic investors will be fun to watch. As these platforms gain traction and clout, they might just upend our understanding of political forecasting, presenting a decentralized take that rivals the old-school polls. In the coming days, all eyes will be on Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s election odds and the investors shaping this narrative.
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