Arthur Hayes forecasts Bitcoin boom as US embraces state-led capitalism

BitMEX founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will continue to outperform traditional assets as the US adopts an economic model that mirrors China’s state-led capitalism under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Hayes said in a recent blog post that inflation and a weakening dollar will drive Bitcoin’s value higher in the coming years as government intervention and debt-fueled growth take center stage in US economic policy.

Hayes further projected that such a scenario would eventually push Bitcoin to a price of $1 million.

Trump’s economic agenda

Hayes drew a sharp comparison between Trump’s economic policies and China’s “socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

While the US has long distanced itself from a pure capitalist model, Hayes argued that Trump’s proposed policies increasingly reflect a China-like approach, where the government plays an active role in reshaping markets, promoting industry, and supporting domestic production.

He explained that Trump’s emphasis on reshoring critical sectors like semiconductor manufacturing and defense marks a significant shift toward a state-directed economy.

According to Hayes, this shift began during the COVID-19 pandemic when the US government distributed direct payments to citizens — an unprecedented move aimed at stimulating consumer spending. Hayes referred to this as “QE for poor people,” with the government injecting trillions of dollars directly into the economy.

As a result, money circulation increased, consumer spending surged, and economic growth was revived. Hayes anticipates that similar policies will continue, contributing to rising inflation and further debt accumulation.

Bitcoin is a key hedge

Hayes expects Bitcoin to benefit significantly as the US government expands its debt to finance industrial and consumer programs. He added that the continued issuance of debt to fund reshoring initiatives, tax credits, and subsidies for domestic companies will increase the money supply, further devaluing the US dollar.

Hayes argued that this will create an environment in which Bitcoin thrives, providing an effective hedge against the weakening of fiat currencies. The flagship crypto’s fixed supply makes it an appealing alternative to traditional financial assets, which are vulnerable to the inflationary pressures created by money-printing policies.

Hayes noted that Bitcoin has already outperformed traditional assets like gold and the S&P 500 since the pandemic’s onset, and he expects this trend to continue as global governments, led by the US, ramp up fiscal and monetary interventions.

While ordinary Americans may benefit from higher wages and job creation, Hayes warned that investors holding long-term bonds or savings deposits will face challenges. He added that inflation will continue to erode the value of traditional assets, while Bitcoin’s limited supply will offer protection against this financial devaluation.

Hayes advised investors to focus on Bitcoin as the most reliable asset for wealth preservation in the face of rising inflation and expanding debt. He added that as central banks continue to flood the economy with liquidity, Bitcoin’s role as a store of value will become even more critical, making it a top asset to hold in uncertain times.

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