Bitcoin, equities, oil jump as trade war tariff messaging on electronics confuses market

Bitcoin held near the $84,500 level on Monday following a weekend of muted price movement, while traditional markets reflected diverging investor sentiment in the wake of the latest moves in US-China trade tensions.

The White House initially announced Friday that smartphones, computers, and other consumer electronics would be exempt from steep tariffs. The US Customs and Border Protection agency published a list of excluded tariff codes, which would have benefited tech companies like Apple and Nvidia.

However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later indicated these electronics would soon face separate levies that would not be tied to specific countries.

Trump himself contradicted the exemptions in a social media post, stating that “no exceptions” would be made for these products in a Sunday night Truth Social post, saying,

“NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China[…] We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.”

Several analysts depicted a narrative over the weekend that may be relevant to Trump’s Sunday post, which posits a desire to appear strong in the face of global pressure,

– Trump hikes China tariffs to 30%
– China does nothing
– Trump hikes China tariffs to 84%
– China responds with matching tariffs
– Trump hikes China tariffs to 145%
– China responds with matching tariffs
– Trump says that he wants Xi to call him
– China does nothing
– Trump says he is ready to “make a deal”
– China does nothing
– Trump rolls back tariffs [on electronics]

Trump made it clear that “There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday.” However, US Customs and Border Protection issued guidance on Friday indicating the opposite.

Bitcoin is trading in a tight consolidation range, even as US equity futures pushed higher. S&P 500 June futures (ESM2025) climbed above 5,460, projecting a short-term target path toward 5,500, up 3.5%.

This bullish equity momentum coincided with a 3.33% uptick in oil prices as traders reassessed energy demand forces amid policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Despite this, the US 10-year bonds and its Chinese counterpart moved modestly, ticking up 0.20%, indicating limited bond market reaction to weekend developments.

Gold, which has acted as a defensive hedge during the trade war, declined by 0.11%.

The price action suggests that investor appetite for risk assets remains intact, possibly driven by interpretations of the trade standoff as nearing saturation after China announced that it would no longer escalate tariffs.

The muted bond and gold response also signal that China’s retaliatory measures and US tariff ambiguity around electronics exemptions did not materially alter inflation and recession fears.

Bitcoin’s relative stability suggests that digital assets are decoupling, at least temporarily, from trade-sensitive macro instruments.

Yet despite geopolitical volatility, its behavior alongside oil and equities points to lingering demand for risk-on assets.

When US markets officially open later today, there will be a clearer picture of how the weekend’s developments will impact major assets like Bitcoin, gold, oil, US equities, and bonds.

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