Stimmy Inbound: Will Trump Tariff Dividend Skyrocket Crypto in Q4?

A fresh promise of “tariff dividend” checks is colliding with a near-record Bitcoin, setting up a Q4 test of how fiscal headlines move crypto. According to Reuters, the White House is considering rebate checks of $1,000 to $2,000 per person funded by tariff revenue, an idea President Donald Trump described as a “dividend to the people” in a recent interview. 

The comments arrive as Bitcoin trades near record highs and US spot BTC ETFs draw steady inflows.

This proposal has emerged this week in a One America News interview, with broader coverage, but no bill and no Treasury structure has been published. 

Americans could receive $1,000–$2,000 payouts, President Trump tells @baldwin_daniel_ , citing record tariff revenues that he says could soon hit $1 trillion a year. He says the gains will reduce the nation’s debt burden and boost growth.

Subscribe to OAN LIVE for more news like… pic.twitter.com/s0ZgsWB382

— One America News (@OANN) October 3, 2025

Markets are considering whether such rebates, were they to be put in effect, would boost household expenditure and appetite to risk in the last quarter of 2025.

How Could Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Rebate Plan Affect Bitcoin and Crypto Markets?

Trump outlined the plan as linking rebates directly to tariff proceeds, framed partly as relief against tariff costs and, in some accounts, as a tool to reduce federal debt. 

Treasury officials in the past have emphasized channeling tariff revenue toward debt paydown.

Revenue projections remain uncertain. Estimates vary, and the administration has yet to explain how funds would be distributed.

The discussion is within the context of crypto strength. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded some $985M in net inflows on Oct. 3, topped by BlackRock’s IBIT, the fifth consecutive Uptober day. 

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 29 meeting is also on the radar of traders, where high odds are already priced in of a rate cut, which is another possible stimulus to risk assets.

This week, Donald Trump told One America News that a planned rebate check may be between $1,000-$2,000 per person as a dividend based on tariff collections. The plan is still pending with specifications of timing and the qualifiers.

As of press time, Bitcoin traded close to $122,000, near August’s high, while US stocks ended Friday on a strong note. 

(Source: Coingecko)

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closed at record levels, reflecting resilience despite an ongoing government shutdown.

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Could Trump’s Proposed Rebate Checks Spark a New ‘Stimmy’ Rally for Crypto?

According to Farside Investors data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $985.1M in net inflows on Oct. 3. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $791.6M, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $69.6M. 

Weekly inflows are on track to rank among the largest of 2025.

If enacted, rebate checks of this size would recall the “stimmy” payments of 2020–21, which coincided with sharp jumps in crypto participation.

But today’s backdrop is different. Inflationary pressures caused by tariffs are still running along supply chains, and the Federal Reserve is considering rate reductions with indications of a late-cycle slowdown.

There are high chances of a rate cut on October 29 as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool, which can further increase pro-risk positioning in equities and crypto. 

(source: CME FedWatch)

Markets are awaiting a formal policy proposal or draft bill to clarify rebate mechanics, including eligibility and funding math. 

With the Fed decision later this month and ETF inflows holding strong, investors are watching whether the “stimmy” narrative evolves into a lasting Q4 catalyst for crypto or just a short-lived bounce.

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