Bitcoin Spot Volume Collapses 81% Since October 10: History Points To A Rare Setup

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure as uncertainty continues dominating global financial markets, but bulls have so far managed to defend the critical $75,000 region. The asset remains trapped below key resistance levels after failing to reclaim momentum above $80,000 earlier this month, leaving traders searching for signs that the current correction is either stabilizing or preparing for another leg lower.

While the recent weakness has raised concerns across the market, top analyst Darkfost believes one of the most important signals is not price itself — but the dramatic collapse in spot trading activity happening beneath the surface.

According to data from Darkfost, Bitcoin spot trading volumes have now fallen to levels historically associated with bear markets. The analyst notes that investors must go back to July 2023 to find a period where BTC spot volumes were this low across major exchanges. Binance, which remains the dominant venue in the crypto market, currently processes around $36.4 billion in trading volume. In October 2025, that figure stood at approximately $198.6 billion.

The collapse is severe. Binance volumes are now nearly five times lower than they were at the cycle peak, representing an 81% decline. Other exchanges show similar weakness, with Gateio volumes falling nearly 80% and Bybit recording a 66% drop in activity.

Bitcoin Volume Collapse May Signal Seller Exhaustion

Darkfost explains that the collapse in Bitcoin spot trading activity reflects a broader macroeconomic environment that has become increasingly hostile toward risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Rising inflationary pressures, persistent uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy, and the US/Iran conflict lasting longer than markets initially expected have pushed investors toward safer or more traditional assets. Commodities, energy markets, and major equity indices have absorbed a large portion of capital flows that previously rotated into crypto during periods of stronger risk appetite.

The result has been a sharp contraction in participation across spot crypto markets. Lower trading activity often reflects declining enthusiasm, weaker speculative demand, and reduced institutional engagement. However, Darkfost argues that the current setup may not be entirely bearish from a structural perspective.

Historically, prolonged declines in spot volume have frequently coincided with the later stages of corrective phases rather than the beginning of major collapses. As participation fades, aggressive selling pressure also begins to weaken because fewer market participants remain actively distributing positions into the market.

The analysis points specifically to the 2023 bear market structure, where spot volumes collapsed to similarly depressed levels shortly before Bitcoin stabilized and volatility returned. That period of extreme inactivity ultimately became the foundation for the recovery phase that followed, as exhausted sellers gradually lost control of the market.

Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support As Bulls Defend The $75K Region

Bitcoin continues trading above the critical $75,000 support region despite persistent selling pressure and weakening market participation. The daily chart shows BTC consolidating near $76,800 after rejecting from the $82,000 resistance zone earlier this month, with price now trapped between major moving averages as traders wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown.

Technically, Bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, which is currently acting as short-term support around the mid-$75,000 area. That level has become structurally important because it aligns closely with the broader horizontal demand zone between approximately $73,000 and $75,000 highlighted on the chart. Bulls have repeatedly defended this region throughout May, preventing sellers from regaining full control of the trend.

However, the broader structure still reflects caution. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue sloping downward overhead, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin remains inside a larger corrective environment despite the recovery from February’s capitulation lows near $63,000.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a compression phase. A decisive reclaim of the $80,000–$82,000 region would strengthen bullish momentum, while losing the $75,000 support zone could expose BTC to a deeper retrace toward the $70,000 area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com